UCAS - UCAS Comment on January application statistics

UCAS Comment on January application statistics

Today UCAS publishes the latest applicant data for entry to full-time undergraduate higher education in 2012. These statistics include all applications considered on time for the 15 January equal-consideration deadline.

We also publish the number of applications (choices, not individuals) to each UCAS member institution, within this deadline. This is known as the applications digest.

For the first time UCAS also reports on application rates (see bullet 1) for young people applying to higher education in 2012, as well as rates of application in terms of advantage and disadvantage. Reporting application rates gives a clearer picture of demand because it accounts for annual changes in the population.

UCAS Chief Executive Mary Curnock Cook said: "There has been a headline drop of 7.4% in applicants with a slightly larger fall in England.

"The more detailed analysis of application rates for young people takes account of population changes. This shows a fall of just one percentage point in the application rate in England, with little change across the rest of the UK.

"Our analysis shows that decreases in demand are slightly larger in more advantaged groups than in the disadvantaged groups. Widely expressed concerns about recent changes in HE funding arrangements having a disproportionate effect on more disadvantaged groups are not borne out by these data.

"However, I remain concerned about the wide and increasing gap between the application rate of men compared to women.

"Although applications are down for mature applicants, this is in the context of some very substantial increases in recent cycles. Applications from mature groups are also set against a backdrop of increasingly higher HE participation rates at their school leaving age.

"The indications are that demand for HE will continue to outstrip the number of places available in 2012. Applications are already 50,000 ahead of the number of acceptances in 2011 and last year UCAS received over 100,000 further applications between January and the close of the cycle."

Notes:

One way to measure demand for higher education is through application rates. These report the number of applicants from a group divided by the size of that group in the population. The advantage of application rates (in this case of young people) is that they show trends in this measure of demand without being affected by year to year changes in the population size. This is important as changes in the population size can have a substantial effect on applicant numbers, often as large as any change in application rate. For more detailed analysis of application rates please see Analysis of UCAS January deadline application rates by country
Although 15 January is the "equal consideration" deadline, UCAS will still send applications to universities and colleges up until 30 June, with those received later going into Clearing. Last year a further 116,000 people applied through UCAS between 15 January and the end of the cycle.
Each year many more people apply to higher education than take up places, and this is not expected to change in the current cycle. There were over 200,000 unplaced applicants in the previous two cycles, with many of those rejecting all their offers or withdrawing voluntarily from the process.

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